Would like help on the Arsenal match

BigGamesOnly · Mar 27, 2004

Most of us know that Arsenal has not lost a match all year. Man.UTD is a good team that can give this Arsenal team a run for the money.

I've been looking at the (American) lines at Pinnacle. They are:

Arsenal ML +110

and

Draw +225

Let's say I bet US$225 on the win and US$100 on the draw.

If Arsenal wins, I win $247.50 for the win and lose $100 on the draw for a net of $147.50.

If there is a draw, I lose $225 on the win and win $225 on the draw for a net of $0.

The only way I could lose would be if Arsenal loses. I then lose $225 + $100 = $325. How likely is this to happen given Arsenal's record?

Thanks in advance for your help.

acw · Mar 27, 2004

Well for a start on BetFair Arsenal to win is +120 and the draw +245, so you do not want to bet this type of sh*t with a sh*t book like Pinnacle.

Second ever heard of Van Nistelrooy? If not, you will hear later about him.

I got to start posting about this other Dutchman now. I will be back later.

BigGamesOnly · Mar 27, 2004

I look forward to hearing from you again acw. You are always very informed, especially when it comes to football.

Mr NJ Sports · Mar 27, 2004

I root for Manchester United but they have been so porous defensively vs good teams lately.
I would think that this will be their "last stand" but they do play Arsenal again in the FA CUP so I wonder if they treat this game or that one with more importance.

From an objective perspective, taking Arsenal at that low of a price cannot be a bad bet.

soccerbob · Mar 27, 2004

This undefeated run means a lot to Arsenal and I think they'll handle Man Utd in this game. That suspect Man Utd defense is ripe for a good passing club like Arsenal. I also lean to the over.

jip · Mar 28, 2004

Personally I like the draw here.

Brazil4Worldcup2002 · Mar 28, 2004

i think there's tons of value on man utd +0.5 at 1.72

BigGamesOnly · Mar 28, 2004

Final tally: 1-1

Of the times that Arsenal does not tie, they would have to win approx. 59% of the time in order to make this bet profitable. Let's say this happened 100 times (for the purposes of probability only) and Arsenal wins 59 times and loses 41 times. Then I would win 59*225=$13275, and I would lose 41*325=$13325.

I realize we are getting down toward the end of the season and the teams will be playing differently, but this seems like a good bet to me.

Thanks again to all who have helped out.

[This message was edited by BigGamesOnly on March 28, 2004 at 12:39 PM.]